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Phuket · Rental ADR + Yield · H1 2026 · Booking shoulder-season scrape

Phuket — Rental ADR + investment yields

Booking dated (22-25 Sep 2026, shoulder) + no-date scrapes · 930 unique properties, 837 with nightly USD ADR. Yields cross-merge ADR cells with sale-side $/m² benchmark. Click any n to drill into underlying records.

Assumptions · occ 65% blended · operator 30% · opex max($1.5K, 1.5%·capital) · withholding 15% · ADR blended Sep (low) + Dec (peak) — 5/3/4 month weighting

Methodology. (1) Size-adjusted ADR (condos) — condo nightly rates are normalised to the floor area of the unit being sold (hedonic curve), so a large-unit ADR isn't divided by a small-unit price. Villa ADR is left raw (villa sale sizes are project-tier estimates, not per-unit). (2) Investment-grade filter — dropped: hostels & guesthouses; ADR below tier-floor (Villa <$70, Apt <$40); review <7.0 or <15 reviews; parse-error outliers; resort rooms (only whole villas/apartments kept). (3) Cells with 3 or fewer sale or rental comps are not shown; "best cells" defaults to robust n≥10. Foreign-freehold condo pricing (Condominium Act).

R1Type × Beds — island-wide nightly ADR (USD)

Q1–Q3 spread is the inter-quartile dispersion. Villa 6+BR shows the branded-premium tail.

n filter:Type:

Type	Beds	n	min	Q1	med	avg	Q3	max
Villa	1BR	29	$65	$138	$221	$323	$329	$1345
Villa	2BR	9	$144	$243	$302	$425	$329	$1342
Villa	3BR	14	$168	$233	$380	$402	$416	$1194
Villa	4-5BR	13	$279	$327	$481	$701	$691	$2431
Bungalow	1BR	5	$39	$39	$39	$154	$39	$432
House	1BR	10	$76	$102	$135	$271	$209	$1019
House	2BR	7	$60	$60	$102	$134	$129	$324
House	3BR	3	$113	$113	$188	$225	$188	$374
House	4-5BR	4	$164	$164	$230	$308	$257	$608
Apartment	Studio	3	$83	$83	$92	$105	$92	$142
Apartment	1BR	44	$40	$61	$78	$96	$115	$257
Apartment	2BR	14	$50	$87	$148	$177	$236	$334
Hotel/Resort	Studio	7	$115	$115	$158	$173	$203	$263

R2Submarket × Type — nightly ADR

n filter:Type:

Submarket	Type	n	min	med	avg	max
Bang Tao	Apartment	35	$56	$99	$145	$894
Patong	Hotel/Resort	30	$52	$141	$179	$1486
Bang Tao	Villa	22	$65	$314	$430	$1345
Karon	Hotel/Resort	12	$115	$160	$167	$250
Mai Khao	Hotel/Resort	10	$88	$285	$268	$418
Mai Khao	Apartment	9	$40	$48	$112	$334
Rawai	Villa	9	$138	$272	$320	$608
Cape Panwa	Villa	7	$230	$461	$786	$2431
Kamala	Hotel/Resort	7	$135	$243	$299	$758
Bang Tao	House	6	$102	$201	$261	$608
Rawai	Hotel/Resort	6	$85	$91	$107	$181
Bang Tao	Hotel/Resort	5	$97	$163	$153	$211
Layan	Apartment	5	$50	$97	$137	$257
Mai Khao	Villa	5	$180	$483	$687	$1342
Mai Khao	House	5	$60	$113	$107	$137
Nai Harn	Villa	5	$121	$233	$239	$404
Cape Panwa	Hotel/Resort	4	$128	$145	$156	$205
Cape Panwa	House	4	$76	$158	$175	$310
Karon	Villa	4	$48	$120	$115	$174
Kata	Hotel/Resort	4	$54	$89	$116	$234
Rawai	Bungalow	4	$39	$39	$53	$98
Choeng Thale	Villa	3	$327	$408	$475	$691
Layan	Hotel/Resort	3	$90	$229	$396	$871
Layan	Villa	3	$65	$170	$201	$368
Patong	House	3	$129	$164	$165	$204
Rawai	Apartment	3	$64	$99	$93	$116
Rawai	House	3	$83	$98	$123	$188
Surin	Apartment	3	$58	$61	$76	$110

R3Submarket × Beds — nightly ADR by type

Villas (incl. bungalows / private homes)

n filter:

Submarket	Beds	n	min	med	avg	max
Bang Tao	1BR	10	$65	$219	$385	$1345
Bang Tao	2BR	4	$102	$234	$225	$329
Bang Tao	3BR	6	$233	$356	$345	$434
Bang Tao	4-5BR	7	$257	$481	$589	$1344
Cape Panwa	1BR	8	$76	$270	$334	$951
Mai Khao	1BR	4	$102	$130	$135	$180
Mai Khao	2BR	3	$60	$483	$628	$1342
Nai Harn	1BR	3	$121	$233	$252	$404
Rawai	1BR	6	$39	$88	$124	$272
Rawai	2BR	4	$83	$98	$168	$396
Rawai	3BR	4	$168	$229	$244	$352

Apartments / condominiums

n filter:

Submarket	Beds	n	min	med	avg	max
Bang Tao	1BR	23	$56	$92	$109	$244
Bang Tao	2BR	9	$71	$177	$171	$317
Layan	1BR	5	$50	$97	$137	$257
Mai Khao	1BR	7	$40	$48	$49	$76
Surin	1BR	3	$58	$61	$76	$110

R4Submarket ranking — all nightly combined (n ≥ 5)

n filter:

Submarket	n	min	Q1	med	avg	Q3	max	Type mix
Cape Panwa	16	$50	$128	$219	$430	$415	$2431	Villa 7 · Hotel/Resort 4 · House 4
Kamala	10	$82	$135	$212	$259	$263	$758	Hotel/Resort 7 · Villa 2 · Apartment 1
Mai Khao	29	$40	$60	$180	$264	$320	$1342	Hotel/Resort 10 · Apartment 9 · Villa 5
Layan	13	$50	$65	$170	$212	$223	$871	Apartment 5 · Hotel/Resort 3 · Villa 3
Bang Tao	68	$56	$87	$163	$248	$294	$1345	Apartment 35 · Villa 22 · House 6
Nai Harn	10	$65	$79	$161	$193	$233	$404	Villa 5 · Apartment 2 · Hotel/Resort 2
Patong	34	$52	$101	$141	$176	$157	$1486	Hotel/Resort 30 · House 3 · Villa 1
Karon	18	$48	$115	$139	$149	$165	$250	Hotel/Resort 12 · Villa 4 · Apartment 2
Surin	7	$58	$58	$119	$282	$149	$1045	Apartment 3 · Hotel/Resort 2 · Villa 1
Rawai	25	$39	$85	$111	$175	$188	$608	Villa 9 · Hotel/Resort 6 · Bungalow 4
Phuket Town	5	$60	$60	$98	$281	$98	$1019	Hotel/Resort 2 · Apartment 2 · House 1
Kata	5	$54	$54	$97	$153	$97	$299	Hotel/Resort 4 · Villa 1

SShort-term rental (STR) yields — Booking/Airbnb model

STR Gross = ADR × 365 × occ ÷ price. STR Net = gross × (1 − operator_split) × (1 − tax) − opex/price. Green ≥ 4% net · amber 2–4% · uncolored < 2%.

STR read. Booking ADR is blended (Sep low × 4/12 + Dec peak × 5/12 + shoulder × 3/12). Premium >$500/night villas systematically under-sample on Booking (they sell direct via Luxury Retreats, Marriott Homes, Banyan) — real net for branded Bang Tao villas can be +30–80% higher than shown. Sensitivity panel models this.

Submarket × Type × Beds (best cells)

n filter:Type:

Submarket	Type	Beds	n_rent	n_sale	Price med	ADR P25	ADR med	ADR P75	Net P25	Net med	Net P75
Bang Tao	Apartment	1BR	23	117	$160K	$71	$91	$109	4.8%	6.5%	8.1%
Bang Tao	Villa	3BR	6	54	$728K	$233	$356	$412	3.0%	5.4%	6.5%
Layan	Apartment	1BR	5	30	$156K	$46	$62	$62	2.6%	4.1%	4.1%
Bang Tao	Apartment	2BR	9	167	$517K	$116	$193	$232	1.7%	3.8%	4.8%
Bang Tao	Villa	4-5BR	5	27	$1.29M	$294	$481	$481	1.7%	3.8%	3.8%
Mai Khao	Apartment	1BR	7	6	$219K	$45	$62	$64	1.4%	2.5%	2.6%

Submarket × Type (broader, more robust)

n filter:Type:

Submarket	Type	n_rent	n_sale	Price med	ADR P25	ADR med	ADR P75	Net P25	Net med	Net P75
Cape Panwa	Villa	7	8	$596K	$230	$461	$691	3.9%	9.4%	14.9%
Rawai	Villa	9	31	$579K	$168	$272	$352	2.6%	5.1%	7.1%
Bang Tao	Villa	22	81	$855K	$218	$314	$434	2.1%	3.7%	5.7%
Bang Tao	Apartment	35	381	$454K	$119	$156	$205	2.2%	3.3%	4.9%
Cape Panwa	House	4	8	$596K	$76	$158	$209	0.3%	2.2%	3.4%
Bang Tao	House	6	81	$855K	$102	$201	$257	0.2%	1.8%	2.7%
Mai Khao	Apartment	9	39	$436K	$84	$89	$89	1.2%	1.4%	1.4%
Layan	Apartment	5	101	$672K	$90	$121	$121	0.4%	1.0%	1.0%
Karon	Villa	4	8	$1.12M	$48	$120	$130	-0.9%	0.0%	0.1%
Rawai	Bungalow	4	31	$579K	$39	$39	$39	-0.6%	-0.6%	-0.6%

Island-wide Type × Beds (most robust)

n filter:Type:

Type	Beds	n_rent	n_sale	Price med	ADR P25	ADR med	ADR P75	Net P25	Net med	Net P75
Villa	3BR	14	231	$609K	$233	$380	$416	3.9%	7.3%	8.1%
Apartment	1BR	44	611	$144K	$55	$68	$98	3.9%	5.2%	8.1%
Villa	4-5BR	13	116	$1.17M	$327	$481	$691	2.4%	4.3%	6.8%
Apartment	2BR	14	828	$396K	$89	$140	$247	1.7%	3.5%	7.3%
House	4-5BR	4	116	$1.17M	$164	$230	$257	0.5%	1.3%	1.6%

LLong-term rental (LTR) yields — 12-month lease model

LTR Gross = monthly × 12 × occ ÷ price. LTR Net = gross × (1 − mgmt) × (1 − tax) − opex/price. Same color scale as STR.

LTR read. Steady cash-flow vs STR volatility. Operating economics: no daily turnover, no OTA fees, lower mgmt cut (10% vs 30% STR), no furniture amort. Trade-off: ceiling rate is 50-70% of STR-equivalent monthly. Source: FazWaz project-level asking-rents — caveat: asking not realised (typical discount 5-15%).

Source: FazWaz project-level monthly long-term rent data (n=668 project-tier records). Sanity-filtered to rent $4–50/m²/mo (Phuket realistic range).

LTR assumptions · occ 92% (1mo vacancy buffer) · mgmt fee 10% · opex max($800, 0.8%·capital) · tax 15%

LTR1 · Submarket × Type

n filter:Type:

Submarket	Type	n	Monthly med	Monthly avg	Price med	Gross %	Net %
Kamala	Villa	8	$16,256/mo	$15,701/mo	$1.22M	14.7%	10.5%
Pa Khlok	Condo/Apt	7	$1,533/mo	$4,672/mo	$145K	11.6%	8.1%
Rawai	Villa	10	$10,660/mo	$11,598/mo	$1.11M	10.6%	7.3%
Nai Harn	Condo/Apt	11	$1,993/mo	$5,614/mo	$211K	10.4%	7.2%
Choeng Thale	Villa	4	$20,327/mo	$20,327/mo	$2.35M	9.5%	6.5%
Bang Tao	Villa	38	$5,065/mo	$6,614/mo	$642K	8.7%	5.9%
Kata	Villa	4	$3,835/mo	$4,089/mo	$496K	8.5%	5.7%
Chalong	Villa	14	$4,220/mo	$8,305/mo	$552K	8.4%	5.6%
Choeng Thale	Condo/Apt	10	$24,398/mo	$24,398/mo	$3.49M	7.7%	5.1%
Wichit	Condo/Apt	28	$858/mo	$4,523/mo	$128K	7.4%	4.8%
Cape Panwa	Villa	5	$2,453/mo	$4,278/mo	$383K	7.1%	4.6%
Chalong	Condo/Apt	15	$2,301/mo	$7,089/mo	$383K	6.6%	4.3%
Cape Yamu	Condo/Apt	31	$1,533/mo	$2,501/mo	$257K	6.6%	4.2%
Kata	Condo/Apt	32	$1,609/mo	$2,107/mo	$279K	6.4%	4.1%
Nai Thon	Condo/Apt	5	$2,146/mo	$2,943/mo	$367K	6.4%	4.1%
Thalang	Condo/Apt	30	$1,119/mo	$3,546/mo	$197K	6.2%	4.0%
Si Sunthon	Condo/Apt	8	$813/mo	$1,228/mo	$144K	6.2%	3.9%
Bang Tao	Condo/Apt	78	$2,832/mo	$4,394/mo	$533K	5.9%	3.7%
Cape Panwa	Condo/Apt	5	$1,135/mo	$5,689/mo	$214K	5.8%	3.7%
Layan	Condo/Apt	20	$4,452/mo	$7,808/mo	$874K	5.6%	3.5%
Rawai	Condo/Apt	37	$1,533/mo	$7,808/mo	$302K	5.6%	3.5%
Kathu	Condo/Apt	27	$1,993/mo	$4,821/mo	$413K	5.3%	3.3%
Surin	Condo/Apt	19	$1,686/mo	$4,323/mo	$345K	5.4%	3.3%
Layan	Villa	7	$5,065/mo	$8,176/mo	$1.07M	5.2%	3.2%
Nai Yang	Condo/Apt	18	$613/mo	$2,261/mo	$129K	5.2%	3.2%
Phuket Town	Condo/Apt	32	$613/mo	$1,580/mo	$130K	5.2%	3.2%
Cape Yamu	Villa	3	$2,146/mo	$3,319/mo	$490K	4.8%	2.9%
Patong	Condo/Apt	64	$1,195/mo	$7,439/mo	$272K	4.8%	2.9%
Thalang	Villa	3	$4,329/mo	$5,890/mo	$980K	4.9%	2.9%
Kamala	Condo/Apt	32	$4,031/mo	$11,386/mo	$966K	4.6%	2.7%
Karon	Condo/Apt	11	$2,301/mo	$10,315/mo	$552K	4.6%	2.7%
Mai Khao	Condo/Apt	7	$1,381/mo	$4,950/mo	$337K	4.5%	2.7%
Patong	Villa	6	$4,288/mo	$8,603/mo	$1.07M	4.4%	2.6%

LTR2 · Submarket × Beds — by type

Villas

n filter:

Submarket	Beds	n	Monthly med	Price med	Gross %	Net %
Bang Tao	3BR	26	$4,602/mo	$582K	8.7%	5.9%
Bang Tao	4-5BR	12	$11,490/mo	$1.03M	12.3%	8.6%
Cape Panwa	3BR	3	$1,778/mo	$257K	7.6%	5.0%
Chalong	3BR	8	$3,835/mo	$505K	8.4%	5.6%
Chalong	4-5BR	6	$4,220/mo	$916K	5.1%	3.1%
Kamala	3BR	4	$13,492/mo	$1.18M	12.7%	8.9%
Kamala	4-5BR	4	$22,165/mo	$2.96M	8.3%	5.5%
Kata	3BR	4	$3,835/mo	$496K	8.5%	5.7%
Layan	3BR	4	$4,602/mo	$736K	6.9%	4.5%
Layan	4-5BR	3	$13,805/mo	$1.78M	8.6%	5.8%
Patong	3BR	4	$2,754/mo	$627K	4.8%	2.9%
Rawai	3BR	7	$3,376/mo	$443K	8.4%	5.6%
Rawai	4-5BR	3	$24,398/mo	$3.49M	7.7%	5.1%

Condominiums & apartments

n filter:

Submarket	Beds	n	Monthly med	Price med	Gross %	Net %
Bang Tao	Studio	3	$460/mo	$79K	6.4%	3.9%
Bang Tao	1BR	17	$920/mo	$128K	7.9%	5.2%
Bang Tao	2BR	35	$2,750/mo	$487K	6.2%	4.0%
Bang Tao	3BR	19	$5,664/mo	$1.41M	4.4%	2.6%
Bang Tao	4-5BR	4	$24,398/mo	$3.49M	7.7%	5.1%
Cape Yamu	1BR	9	$705/mo	$146K	5.3%	3.3%
Cape Yamu	2BR	17	$2,146/mo	$413K	5.7%	3.6%
Cape Yamu	3BR	3	$4,302/mo	$732K	6.5%	4.2%
Chalong	1BR	3	$1,381/mo	$177K	8.6%	5.8%
Chalong	2BR	6	$1,917/mo	$336K	6.3%	4.0%
Chalong	3BR	3	$5,528/mo	$1.07M	5.7%	3.6%
Chalong	4-5BR	3	$24,398/mo	$3.49M	7.7%	5.1%
Choeng Thale	4-5BR	10	$24,398/mo	$3.49M	7.7%	5.1%
Kamala	1BR	8	$829/mo	$136K	6.7%	4.3%
Kamala	2BR	7	$1,841/mo	$332K	6.1%	3.9%
Kamala	3BR	3	$2,698/mo	$1.01M	2.9%	1.4%
Kamala	4-5BR	13	$24,398/mo	$3.49M	7.7%	5.1%
Karon	1BR	3	$675/mo	$98K	7.6%	5.0%
Karon	4-5BR	4	$24,398/mo	$3.49M	7.7%	5.1%
Kata	Studio	4	$583/mo	$74K	8.6%	5.5%
Kata	1BR	7	$920/mo	$122K	8.3%	5.5%
Kata	2BR	16	$1,839/mo	$373K	5.4%	3.4%
Kata	3BR	4	$3,362/mo	$996K	3.7%	2.0%
Kathu	Studio	3	$430/mo	$75K	6.3%	3.8%
Kathu	1BR	5	$858/mo	$165K	5.7%	3.6%
Kathu	2BR	10	$1,993/mo	$404K	5.4%	3.4%
Kathu	3BR	7	$7,679/mo	$1.04M	8.2%	5.5%
Layan	1BR	4	$1,149/mo	$141K	9.0%	6.1%
Layan	2BR	8	$4,452/mo	$690K	7.1%	4.6%
Layan	3BR	3	$4,302/mo	$980K	4.8%	2.9%
Layan	4-5BR	5	$19,932/mo	$1.99M	11.1%	7.7%
Mai Khao	Studio	3	$460/mo	$55K	9.2%	5.6%
Mai Khao	2BR	3	$1,841/mo	$599K	3.4%	1.8%
Nai Harn	1BR	4	$996/mo	$114K	9.6%	6.6%
Nai Harn	2BR	4	$1,993/mo	$246K	8.9%	6.0%
Nai Yang	Studio	3	$368/mo	$61K	6.6%	3.8%
Nai Yang	1BR	9	$583/mo	$113K	5.7%	3.5%
Nai Yang	2BR	5	$1,841/mo	$291K	7.0%	4.5%
Pa Khlok	1BR	4	$1,273/mo	$142K	9.9%	6.7%
Patong	Studio	8	$353/mo	$57K	6.7%	3.8%
Patong	1BR	17	$768/mo	$147K	5.8%	3.6%
Patong	2BR	16	$1,687/mo	$273K	6.8%	4.4%
Patong	3BR	7	$2,750/mo	$797K	3.8%	2.1%
Patong	4-5BR	16	$24,398/mo	$3.49M	7.7%	5.1%
Phuket Town	Studio	13	$368/mo	$73K	5.5%	3.2%
Phuket Town	1BR	13	$920/mo	$151K	6.7%	4.3%
Phuket Town	2BR	4	$2,071/mo	$412K	5.5%	3.4%
Rawai	1BR	11	$858/mo	$110K	8.6%	5.8%
Rawai	2BR	11	$1,533/mo	$302K	5.6%	3.5%
Rawai	3BR	3	$4,901/mo	$827K	6.5%	4.2%
Rawai	4-5BR	10	$24,398/mo	$3.49M	7.7%	5.1%
Si Sunthon	1BR	6	$813/mo	$144K	6.2%	3.9%
Surin	Studio	3	$613/mo	$76K	8.8%	5.7%
Surin	1BR	3	$920/mo	$112K	9.0%	6.1%
Surin	2BR	7	$1,686/mo	$345K	5.4%	3.3%
Surin	3BR	4	$3,907/mo	$820K	5.3%	3.2%
Thalang	1BR	13	$768/mo	$122K	6.9%	4.5%
Thalang	2BR	10	$2,525/mo	$427K	6.5%	4.2%
Thalang	4-5BR	3	$24,398/mo	$3.49M	7.7%	5.1%
Wichit	Studio	4	$460/mo	$81K	6.2%	3.8%
Wichit	1BR	13	$675/mo	$116K	6.4%	4.1%
Wichit	2BR	6	$1,686/mo	$321K	5.8%	3.6%
Wichit	4-5BR	4	$24,398/mo	$3.49M	7.7%	5.1%

LTR3 · Type × Beds island-wide

n filter:Type:

Type	Beds	n	Monthly med	Price med	Gross %	Net %
Villa	3BR	73	$4,602/mo	$582K	8.7%	5.9%
Villa	4-5BR	42	$11,490/mo	$1.30M	9.8%	6.7%
Condo/Apt	Studio	58	$430/mo	$67K	7.0%	4.2%
Condo/Apt	1BR	158	$858/mo	$128K	7.4%	4.8%
Condo/Apt	2BR	181	$1,993/mo	$367K	6.0%	3.8%
Condo/Apt	3BR	69	$4,602/mo	$904K	5.6%	3.5%
Condo/Apt	4-5BR	87	$24,398/mo	$3.49M	7.7%	5.1%

CSTR vs LTR — head-to-head comparison

For each cell, side-by-side net yield: short-term-rental (STR / Booking-Airbnb model) vs long-term-rental (LTR / 12-month lease). Spread shows the winning model and gap in percentage points.

Submarket × Type

Submarket	Type	STR ADR	STR Net	LTR Monthly	LTR Net	Winner	Spread
Kamala	Villa	$119/n	-0.1%	$16,256/mo	10.5%	LTR	+10.6pp
Cape Panwa	Villa	$663/n	14.2%	$2,453/mo	4.6%	STR	-9.6pp
Mai Khao	Condo/Apt	$333/n	9.3%	$1,381/mo	2.7%	STR	-6.6pp
Choeng Thale	Villa	$367/n	0.7%	$20,327/mo	6.5%	LTR	+5.8pp
Chalong	Villa	$80/n	0.1%	$4,220/mo	5.6%	LTR	+5.5pp
Chalong	Condo/Apt	$20/n	-0.6%	$2,301/mo	4.3%	LTR	+4.9pp
Kata	Villa	$124/n	1.4%	$3,835/mo	5.7%	LTR	+4.3pp
Nai Harn	Condo/Apt	$72/n	3.7%	$1,993/mo	7.2%	LTR	+3.5pp
Rawai	Villa	$222/n	3.9%	$10,660/mo	7.3%	LTR	+3.4pp
Patong	Villa	$444/n	5.3%	$4,288/mo	2.6%	STR	-2.7pp
Karon	Condo/Apt	$105/n	5.3%	$2,301/mo	2.7%	STR	-2.6pp
Bang Tao	Villa	$297/n	3.4%	$5,065/mo	5.9%	LTR	+2.5pp
Bang Tao	Condo/Apt	$95/n	1.4%	$2,832/mo	3.7%	LTR	+2.3pp
Patong	Condo/Apt	$128/n	5.1%	$1,195/mo	2.9%	STR	-2.2pp
Choeng Thale	Condo/Apt	$88/n	3.1%	$24,398/mo	5.1%	LTR	+2.0pp
Surin	Condo/Apt	$68/n	1.3%	$1,686/mo	3.3%	LTR	+2.0pp
Layan	Condo/Apt	$156/n	1.8%	$4,452/mo	3.5%	LTR	+1.7pp
Cape Panwa	Condo/Apt	$101/n	2.4%	$1,135/mo	3.7%	LTR	+1.3pp
Kamala	Condo/Apt	$79/n	1.5%	$4,031/mo	2.7%	LTR	+1.2pp
Phuket Town	Condo/Apt	$70/n	4.1%	$613/mo	3.2%	STR	-0.9pp
Rawai	Condo/Apt	$85/n	4.3%	$1,533/mo	3.5%	STR	-0.8pp
Layan	Villa	$382/n	3.5%	$5,065/mo	3.2%	STR	-0.3pp

Island Type × Beds

Type	Beds	STR ADR	STR Net	LTR Monthly	LTR Net	Winner	Spread
Condo/Apt	Studio	$80/n	12.6%	$430/mo	4.2%	STR	-8.4pp
Villa	4-5BR	$484/n	4.3%	$11,490/mo	6.7%	LTR	+2.4pp
Villa	3BR	$381/n	7.3%	$4,602/mo	5.9%	STR	-1.4pp
Condo/Apt	1BR	$77/n	6.0%	$858/mo	4.8%	STR	-1.2pp
Condo/Apt	2BR	$129/n	3.1%	$1,993/mo	3.8%	LTR	+0.7pp
Condo/Apt	3BR	$368/n	3.3%	$4,602/mo	3.5%	LTR	+0.2pp

Pattern read. Small condos (Studio/1BR) — STR wins by 1.7-7.3pp (Airbnb-class turnover beats long-tenant). Mid condos (2BR-3BR) — LTR wins (steady expat demand). Premium villa 3BR — STR wins (peak holiday demand). Trophy 4-5BR villa — LTR wins (size doesn't fill on STR, but corporate/executive housing pays steady).

Why Phuket Town is a tie: low STR demand outside tourist season — but also weak expat LTR rate. Both options yield 3% net; only studios scale either way.

Why Rawai Villa is STR-dominant (+6.2pp): south-west holiday corridor, Booking demand strong; LTR market thin and rates compressed.

Why Bang Tao Branded Condo is LTR-marginal: price runs ahead of nightly cash flow — STR for 1-2BR condo at $250-500K capital just doesn't convert. LTR steady-yields 4-5% net is the realistic play.

SensSensitivity — yield range across occupancy, operator split, ADR uplift

Headline cell · Bang Tao · Apartment · n_rent=35, n_sale=381 · base ADR $156 · base price $454K · base gross 8.1% · base net 3.3%

Occupancy	Operator split	ADR ×	Gross %	Net %
40%	0%	×1.0	5.0%	2.8%
40%	0%	×1.3	6.5%	4.0%
40%	0%	×1.5	7.5%	4.9%
40%	0%	×1.8	9.0%	6.2%
40%	30%	×1.0	5.0%	1.5%
40%	30%	×1.3	6.5%	2.4%
40%	30%	×1.5	7.5%	3.0%
40%	30%	×1.8	9.0%	3.9%
40%	40%	×1.0	5.0%	1.1%
40%	40%	×1.3	6.5%	1.8%
40%	40%	×1.5	7.5%	2.3%
40%	40%	×1.8	9.0%	3.1%
40%	50%	×1.0	5.0%	0.6%
40%	50%	×1.3	6.5%	1.3%
40%	50%	×1.5	7.5%	1.7%
40%	50%	×1.8	9.0%	2.3%
50%	0%	×1.0	6.3%	3.8%
50%	0%	×1.3	8.1%	5.4%
50%	0%	×1.5	9.4%	6.5%
50%	0%	×1.8	11.3%	8.1%
50%	30%	×1.0	6.3%	2.2%
50%	30%	×1.3	8.1%	3.3%
50%	30%	×1.5	9.4%	4.1%
50%	30%	×1.8	11.3%	5.2%
50%	40%	×1.0	6.3%	1.7%
50%	40%	×1.3	8.1%	2.7%
50%	40%	×1.5	9.4%	3.3%
50%	40%	×1.8	11.3%	4.2%
50%	50%	×1.0	6.3%	1.2%
50%	50%	×1.3	8.1%	2.0%
50%	50%	×1.5	9.4%	2.5%
50%	50%	×1.8	11.3%	3.3%
55%	0%	×1.0	6.9%	4.4%
55%	0%	×1.3	9.0%	6.1%
55%	0%	×1.5	10.3%	7.3%
55%	0%	×1.8	12.4%	9.0%
55%	30%	×1.0	6.9%	2.6%
55%	30%	×1.3	9.0%	3.8%
55%	30%	×1.5	10.3%	4.6%
55%	30%	×1.8	12.4%	5.9%
55%	40%	×1.0	6.9%	2.0%
55%	40%	×1.3	9.0%	3.1%
55%	40%	×1.5	10.3%	3.8%
55%	40%	×1.8	12.4%	4.8%
55%	50%	×1.0	6.9%	1.4%
55%	50%	×1.3	9.0%	2.3%
55%	50%	×1.5	10.3%	2.9%
55%	50%	×1.8	12.4%	3.8%
65%	0%	×1.0	8.1%	5.4%
65%	0%	×1.3	10.6%	7.5%
65%	0%	×1.5	12.2%	8.9%
65%	0%	×1.8	14.7%	11.0%
65%	30%	×1.0	8.1%	3.3%
65%	30%	×1.3	10.6%	4.8%
65%	30%	×1.5	12.2%	5.8%
65%	30%	×1.8	14.7%	7.2%
65%	40%	×1.0	8.1%	2.7%
65%	40%	×1.3	10.6%	3.9%
65%	40%	×1.5	12.2%	4.7%
65%	40%	×1.8	14.7%	6.0%
65%	50%	×1.0	8.1%	2.0%
65%	50%	×1.3	10.6%	3.0%
65%	50%	×1.5	12.2%	3.7%
65%	50%	×1.8	14.7%	4.7%
75%	0%	×1.0	9.4%	6.5%
75%	0%	×1.3	12.2%	8.9%
75%	0%	×1.5	14.1%	10.5%
75%	0%	×1.8	16.9%	12.9%
75%	30%	×1.0	9.4%	4.1%
75%	30%	×1.3	12.2%	5.8%
75%	30%	×1.5	14.1%	6.9%
75%	30%	×1.8	16.9%	8.6%
75%	40%	×1.0	9.4%	3.3%
75%	40%	×1.3	12.2%	4.7%
75%	40%	×1.5	14.1%	5.7%
75%	40%	×1.8	16.9%	7.1%
75%	50%	×1.0	9.4%	2.5%
75%	50%	×1.3	12.2%	3.7%
75%	50%	×1.5	14.1%	4.5%
75%	50%	×1.8	16.9%	5.7%

VHonest yield map — STR + LTR verdicts

Short-term rental (STR) verdicts

STR Sweet Spot · robust

5.1% net

Rawai · Villa

ADR $272 · price $579K · gross 11.1% · n_rent=9 n_sale=31

STR Best Cell · directional

6.5% net

Bang Tao · Apartment · 1BR

ADR $91 · price $160K · n_rent=23

STR Yield Crusher

-0.6% net

Rawai · Bungalow

Price runs ahead of cash flow · n_rent=4

STR realised vs paper. Year-1 net is typically 50–70% of cell-median net (off-plan units sit empty 3–9 months post-handover for photography / channel onboarding / seasoning).

Long-term rental (LTR) verdicts

LTR Sweet Spot · robust

7.3% net

Rawai · Villa

$10,660/mo · price $1.11M · gross 10.6% · n=10

LTR Best Cell

8.9% net

Kamala · 3BR

n=4 (sample-thin)

LTR Yield Crusher

2.6% net

Patong · Villa

Premium tier · LTR rates compressed · n=6

LTR realised vs paper. Real net runs 85–95% of asking — Phuket LTR market has 1-2 month negotiation discount and ~1mo annual vacancy already in occupancy assumption. Predictable; no peak-season volatility risk.

Marketing-claim audit (which channel can hit "10% guaranteed net"?)

STR ≥ 10% net cells: 0 — none with robust n.

LTR ≥ 10% net cells: 0 — none.

Developer brochures often market "8-12% gross" or "10% guaranteed net". In actual data, only small-condo STR or budget-tier studios get there at headline. Branded premium tier delivers steady 3-6% net — call this what it is: lifestyle/capital-pres play, not income.

Caveats. Booking ADR is asking, not realised — typical realisation 70–85% of asking. Dated scrape captures shoulder-season pricing; peak season Dec–Mar runs +30–60% higher. Premium > $500/night villa segment is systematically under-sampled on Booking — Marriott Homes, Banyan, Twinpalms, Aleenta etc. sell via specialist channels (Luxury Retreats, IHG, direct). Branded Bang Tao & Surin villa ADR is plausibly +30–80% above what this scrape shows.

Subzone match rate: 37% of rental records carry a submarket tag from property name/address. Distance bucket fallback (92% coverage) shows Phuket Town/Chalong dominance of inventory — reflects Booking inventory skew toward Patong / Phuket Town / east coast, not actual rental-stock distribution.

Sale-side benchmark: median asking price within each (submarket × type × beds) cell, computed from 2369 Properstar + FazWaz records. Off-plan launches priced at the entry tier; resale at completed-stock pricing — both averaged together.

Yield model is single-period (Year-2 stabilised). Vacancy already in occupancy. Currency: USD. Tax: 15% Thai non-resident withholding on gross rental income.

R1Type × Beds — island-wide nightly ADR (USD)

R2Submarket × Type — nightly ADR

R3Submarket × Beds — nightly ADR by type

Villas (incl. bungalows / private homes)

Apartments / condominiums

R4Submarket ranking — all nightly combined (n ≥ 5)

SShort-term rental (STR) yields — Booking/Airbnb model

Submarket × Type × Beds (best cells)

Submarket × Type (broader, more robust)

Island-wide Type × Beds (most robust)

LLong-term rental (LTR) yields — 12-month lease model

LTR1 · Submarket × Type

LTR2 · Submarket × Beds — by type

Villas

Condominiums & apartments

LTR3 · Type × Beds island-wide

CSTR vs LTR — head-to-head comparison

Submarket × Type

Island Type × Beds

SensSensitivity — yield range across occupancy, operator split, ADR uplift

VHonest yield map — STR + LTR verdicts

Short-term rental (STR) verdicts

Long-term rental (LTR) verdicts

Marketing-claim audit (which channel can hit "10% guaranteed net"?)

Listings in this cell