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Bali · Rental ADR + Yield · H1 2026 · Booking shoulder-season scrape

Bali — Rental ADR + investment yields

Booking dated (22-25 Sep 2026, shoulder) + no-date scrapes · 4472 unique properties, 4472 with nightly USD ADR. Yields cross-merge ADR cells with sale-side $/m² benchmark. Click any n to drill into underlying records.

Assumptions · occ 70% (professionally-managed new-build) · operator 22% · opex max($1,200, 1.3%·capital) · Indonesian withholding 10% · ADR blended Aug (peak) + Feb (low) — 4/3/5 month weighting

Methodology. (1) Leasehold-priced — yield denominator uses leasehold asking prices (~90% of the market; freehold runs 1.5-2× and is shown separately in pivots), so yield is apples-to-apples for the unit you transact. (2) Size-adjusted ADR — each rental's nightly rate is normalised to the floor area of the unit being sold (hedonic curve, elasticity ≈0.4), so a large-villa ADR isn't divided by a small-villa price. (3) Investment-grade filter — dropped: hostels & guesthouses; ADR below tier-floor (Villa <$70, Apt <$40); review <7.0 or <15 reviews; parse-error outliers. (4) Cells with 3 or fewer sale or rental comps are not shown; "best cells" defaults to robust n≥10.

R1Type × Beds — island-wide nightly ADR (USD)

Q1–Q3 spread is the inter-quartile dispersion. Villa 6+BR shows the branded-premium tail.

n filter:Type:
TypeBedsnminQ1medavgQ3max
VillaStudio15$71$75$100$112$127$225
Villa1BR457$70$115$159$179$207$1451
Villa2BR311$71$125$173$201$246$796
Villa3BR135$76$164$235$286$344$1342
Villa4-5BR78$70$263$421$475$547$1861
Villa6+BR25$206$461$690$968$1122$2995
Bungalow1BR35$55$63$103$542$164$14999
Bungalow2BR4$71$71$131$142$160$235
House1BR225$70$102$142$175$198$891
House2BR112$70$113$160$197$255$642
House3BR26$78$128$206$252$303$718
House4-5BR10$135$156$256$417$527$1041
House6+BR4$326$326$618$589$763$796
ApartmentStudio11$43$49$76$100$113$226
Apartment1BR108$40$55$72$95$115$484
Apartment2BR25$41$67$132$196$156$1820
Apartment3BR10$54$57$123$133$167$198
Apartment4-5BR4$51$51$185$171$263$263
Hotel/ResortStudio10$62$66$88$133$128$336
Hotel/Resort1BR91$60$72$105$145$151$799
Hotel/Resort2BR7$99$99$138$150$150$251

R2Submarket × Type — nightly ADR

n filter:Type:
SubmarketTypenminmedavgmax
CangguVilla129$71$180$228$1235
SeminyakVilla119$71$199$274$2084
UbudVilla112$70$150$182$2094
PererenanVilla95$71$179$260$2995
UluwatuVilla92$72$196$252$1110
Other BaliVilla81$70$214$260$729
UbudHotel/Resort68$61$132$146$584
BinginVilla63$91$182$207$441
SanurVilla57$71$169$225$827
JimbaranVilla52$74$145$230$1180
Other BaliHouse50$73$160$214$763
SanurHotel/Resort48$62$134$153$433
UluwatuHotel/Resort44$66$119$143$404
BerawaVilla39$85$143$167$580
Nusa DuaHotel/Resort39$63$134$161$473
SeminyakHotel/Resort38$60$105$135$441
KerobokanVilla35$77$165$271$1182
LovinaVilla35$74$158$241$976
Nusa DuaVilla32$76$210$320$1645
UmalasVilla32$76$161$194$564
SanurApartment31$44$96$100$206
UbudApartment31$41$62$85$308
BinginHouse30$77$224$239$512
CangguHouse28$71$153$178$532
CangguHotel/Resort27$64$95$160$546
Padang PadangHouse26$86$179$198$383
UbudHouse25$70$115$127$261
PererenanApartment24$57$85$191$1948
JimbaranHouse22$75$136$153$400
SidemenHouse22$79$184$334$891
NuanuVilla21$89$135$206$891
JimbaranHotel/Resort20$61$131$185$799
KutaHotel/Resort19$60$101$100$177
SeminyakHouse19$84$199$212$405
UngasanVilla19$76$125$243$1937
CangguApartment18$49$79$111$484
KedunguHouse18$85$111$129$219
SanurHouse18$77$206$229$640
KedunguVilla17$72$165$198$519
PererenanHouse17$74$117$126$227
SulubanHouse17$117$313$338$718
BalanganVilla16$77$166$229$1104
SeminyakApartment16$41$62$183$1820
UluwatuApartment16$42$109$103$204
Other BaliHotel/Resort15$62$128$132$264
BerawaHouse14$76$152$181$527
Padang PadangVilla14$86$179$222$528
LegianVilla13$105$229$209$345
Other BaliBungalow13$56$73$88$160
PererenanHotel/Resort12$67$106$136$345
UngasanHouse12$80$133$153$303
Batu BolongVilla11$74$131$205$524
MelastiVilla11$81$151$184$546
NunggalanVilla11$77$118$122$188
UmalasHouse11$70$141$262$1041
LovinaHouse10$81$127$152$321
SulubanVilla10$77$147$231$749
BerawaHotel/Resort9$63$89$97$180
BinginHotel/Resort9$64$76$150$480
MelastiHouse9$70$139$136$193
NunggalanHouse9$102$134$149$298
PandawaVilla9$70$90$229$1342
UbudBungalow9$52$74$86$186
UngasanHotel/Resort8$64$79$90$148
BinginApartment7$67$147$150$274
BalanganHotel/Resort6$78$132$137$254
BerawaApartment6$45$68$80$141
KerobokanHouse6$75$110$108$139
NuanuHouse6$95$145$138$185
UluwatuHouse6$99$145$246$744
Batu BolongHotel/Resort5$105$136$136$172
KutaVilla5$73$104$210$420
UmalasApartment5$40$51$53$73
BalanganHouse4$110$217$198$249
KedunguBungalow4$112$151$162$235
Padang PadangHotel/Resort4$85$92$103$144
UluwatuBungalow4$55$176$3851$14999
UmalasHotel/Resort4$62$65$79$127
JimbaranApartment3$45$54$76$130
LegianHotel/Resort3$98$99$104$115
LovinaBungalow3$53$103$87$106
MelastiApartment3$62$65$64$67
NuanuApartment3$42$63$74$118
Nusa DuaApartment3$73$90$86$95
Padang PadangBungalow3$74$95$88$95
Padang PadangApartment3$51$65$69$92
SanurBungalow3$60$303$245$374
SulubanHotel/Resort3$100$151$134$151
SulubanApartment3$47$50$101$206
UngasanApartment3$48$53$52$57

R3Submarket × Beds — nightly ADR by type

Villas (incl. bungalows / private homes)

n filter:
SubmarketBedsnminmedavgmax
Balangan1BR10$139$194$199$280
Balangan2BR7$77$136$168$321
Batu Bolong2BR3$151$218$297$524
Berawa1BR18$76$138$146$298
Berawa2BR23$97$142$146$274
Berawa3BR7$128$269$227$287
Bingin1BR73$77$194$205$512
Bingin2BR19$113$212$258$451
CangguStudio5$71$75$91$139
Canggu1BR63$56$152$165$543
Canggu2BR51$99$198$227$796
Canggu3BR14$86$177$229$416
Canggu4-5BR12$78$470$444$783
Canggu6+BR3$552$684$823$1235
Jimbaran1BR38$74$134$165$1126
Jimbaran2BR19$101$160$184$467
Jimbaran3BR13$78$186$232$608
Kedungu1BR22$72$111$124$229
Kedungu2BR12$99$149$187$324
Kedungu3BR3$165$204$196$219
Kerobokan1BR21$85$150$144$251
Kerobokan2BR12$75$155$161$287
Kerobokan4-5BR5$188$596$640$1182
Legian1BR6$105$197$186$254
Legian2BR5$119$166$193$280
Legian3BR3$199$248$264$345
Lovina1BR10$81$169$184$384
Lovina2BR19$74$123$156$431
Lovina3BR11$78$152$240$519
Lovina4-5BR6$92$305$294$580
Melasti1BR7$88$149$142$193
Melasti2BR10$70$138$133$206
Nuanu1BR15$89$120$133$314
Nuanu2BR9$98$164$165$298
Nunggalan1BR17$77$118$125$193
Nunggalan2BR3$120$146$188$298
Nusa Dua1BR6$65$183$370$1057
Nusa Dua2BR9$106$243$211$305
Nusa Dua3BR6$76$234$213$339
Nusa Dua4-5BR3$164$240$683$1645
Other Bali1BR72$56$135$176$533
Other Bali2BR20$71$158$212$723
Other Bali3BR26$98$245$272$532
Other Bali4-5BR19$70$352$340$729
Other Bali6+BR4$206$460$472$763
Padang Padang1BR31$74$160$170$373
Padang Padang2BR11$86$232$249$383
Pandawa1BR4$70$77$77$85
Pandawa2BR4$90$93$97$112
Pererenan1BR45$63$156$166$430
Pererenan2BR42$71$172$192$470
Pererenan3BR9$114$164$202$485
Pererenan4-5BR4$108$323$314$504
Pererenan6+BR7$395$538$954$2995
Sanur1BR22$71$180$208$786
Sanur2BR25$71$189$208$454
Sanur3BR9$76$189$264$475
Sanur4-5BR7$213$418$462$827
Seminyak1BR54$71$159$192$1451
Seminyak2BR37$83$185$206$434
Seminyak3BR23$141$235$304$1000
Seminyak4-5BR13$104$400$536$1861
Seminyak6+BR4$355$716$967$2084
Sidemen1BR23$85$178$350$891
Suluban1BR11$102$163$190$373
Suluban2BR10$138$406$374$642
Suluban3BR3$481$718$649$749
UbudStudio3$98$119$120$144
Ubud1BR87$55$139$152$451
Ubud2BR20$71$160$178$422
Ubud3BR6$88$188$206$455
Uluwatu1BR29$72$158$669$14999
Uluwatu2BR23$100$235$245$415
Uluwatu3BR11$175$315$424$1110
Uluwatu4-5BR5$173$726$590$788
Umalas1BR19$70$143$148$297
Umalas2BR16$74$139$155$298
Umalas3BR5$154$250$302$564
Ungasan1BR10$80$117$143$321
Ungasan2BR16$76$132$151$280

Apartments / condominiums

n filter:
SubmarketBedsnminmedavgmax
Berawa1BR4$45$67$69$100
Bingin1BR5$67$188$176$274
Canggu1BR10$49$79$122$484
Canggu2BR3$68$156$130$168
Jimbaran1BR3$45$54$76$130
Nuanu1BR3$42$63$74$118
Pererenan1BR13$57$66$72$120
Pererenan2BR4$132$132$132$132
Pererenan3BR3$198$198$198$198
SanurStudio4$50$86$84$113
Sanur1BR18$47$121$111$206
Seminyak1BR9$41$55$59$78
Seminyak2BR4$63$166$554$1820
Suluban1BR3$47$50$101$206
Ubud1BR13$45$69$93$308
Ubud2BR3$52$148$129$188
Ubud3BR3$54$123$114$167
Uluwatu1BR7$42$88$92$156
Umalas1BR5$40$51$53$73

Hotels & resorts (managed-program ADR — different economics)

n filter:
SubmarketBedsnminmedavgmax
Berawa1BR5$63$89$82$95
Bingin1BR8$64$74$132$480
Jimbaran1BR5$98$128$254$799
Nusa Dua1BR4$63$288$278$473
Other Bali1BR12$62$108$120$264
Other Bali2BR3$138$150$179$251
Padang Padang1BR3$85$85$104$144
Sanur1BR8$67$149$154$323
Seminyak1BR3$96$105$149$248
Suluban1BR3$100$151$134$151
Ubud1BR13$63$145$180$584
UluwatuStudio3$70$180$195$336
Uluwatu1BR7$91$128$171$335
Umalas1BR4$62$65$79$127
Ungasan1BR4$71$71$82$118

R4Submarket ranking — all nightly combined (n ≥ 5)

n filter:
SubmarketnminQ1medavgQ3maxType mix
Suluban34$47$117$194$259$373$749House 17 · Villa 10 · Hotel/Resort 3
Bingin111$64$145$188$207$232$512Villa 63 · House 30 · Hotel/Resort 9
Sidemen26$79$105$184$334$533$891House 22 · Bungalow 2 · Villa 1
Other Bali161$56$109$170$218$283$763Villa 81 · House 50 · Hotel/Resort 15
Seminyak193$41$95$166$232$250$2084Villa 119 · Hotel/Resort 38 · House 19
Kerobokan42$75$106$163$244$212$1182Villa 35 · House 6 · Apartment 1
Legian20$42$105$162$172$237$345Villa 13 · Hotel/Resort 3 · Apartment 2
Padang Padang50$51$103$162$183$211$528House 26 · Villa 14 · Hotel/Resort 4
Uluwatu162$42$106$159$297$235$14999Villa 92 · Hotel/Resort 44 · Apartment 16
Pererenan149$57$101$152$222$233$2995Villa 95 · Apartment 24 · House 17
Canggu203$49$97$151$201$245$1235Villa 129 · House 28 · Hotel/Resort 27
Nusa Dua76$63$95$150$222$243$1645Hotel/Resort 39 · Villa 32 · Apartment 3
Balangan28$41$97$145$191$225$1104Villa 16 · Hotel/Resort 6 · House 4
Kedungu43$62$103$145$164$201$519House 18 · Villa 17 · Bungalow 4
Umalas52$40$78$142$186$202$1041Villa 32 · House 11 · Apartment 5
Sanur157$44$88$139$179$225$827Villa 57 · Hotel/Resort 48 · Apartment 31
Melasti23$62$73$138$150$170$546Villa 11 · House 9 · Apartment 3
Jimbaran99$45$111$137$198$194$1180Villa 52 · House 22 · Hotel/Resort 20
Nuanu31$42$98$135$176$165$891Villa 21 · House 6 · Apartment 3
Berawa69$45$96$134$151$170$580Villa 39 · House 14 · Hotel/Resort 9
Lovina52$52$94$134$203$240$976Villa 35 · House 10 · Bungalow 3
Batu Bolong19$45$91$131$173$172$524Villa 11 · Hotel/Resort 5 · Apartment 2
Ubud245$41$86$119$151$172$2094Villa 112 · Hotel/Resort 68 · Apartment 31
Nunggalan21$77$102$118$133$141$298Villa 11 · House 9 · Apartment 1
Ungasan42$48$80$114$175$148$1937Villa 19 · House 12 · Hotel/Resort 8
Kuta27$43$73$102$124$122$420Hotel/Resort 19 · Villa 5 · Apartment 2
Pandawa10$70$75$90$215$96$1342Villa 9 · House 1

SShort-term rental (STR) yields — Booking/Airbnb model

STR Gross = ADR × 365 × occ ÷ price. STR Net = gross × (1 − operator_split) × (1 − tax) − opex/price. Green ≥ 4% net · amber 2–4% · uncolored < 2%.

⚠ Which column to read — this matters. Sale prices here are new-build premium (curated Anteya projects). Booking ADR comes from all existing rentals of that bed-count — mostly older, smaller villas in cheaper micro-locations. A new pool villa does not rent at the median of all existing villas; it rents in the top quartile.

So: Net med = "if your villa performs like the average existing rental". Net P75 (green column) = "new-build expected" — what a well-photographed, professionally-managed new pool villa realistically achieves. For a new-build purchase, anchor on Net P75, not the median. The median understates new product by ~30–40%.

Submarket × Type × Beds (best cells)

n filter:Type:
SubmarketTypeBedsn_rentn_salePrice medADR P25ADR medADR P75Net P25Net medNet P75
Other BaliVilla1BR725$139K$102$135$22211.8%16.0%27.1%
Padang PadangVilla1BR316$182K$129$160$18511.4%14.4%16.9%
MelastiVilla1BR75$180K$88$149$1517.5%13.5%13.7%
PererenanVilla1BR458$177K$96$145$1658.4%13.4%15.4%
BinginVilla1BR7310$239K$154$194$22910.2%13.2%15.8%
PererenanVilla4-5BR47$698K$209$523$5234.1%12.1%12.1%
Nusa DuaVilla1BR69$180K$56$133$1844.3%12.0%17.0%
UbudVilla1BR878$215K$110$160$1797.9%12.0%13.6%
BinginVilla2BR197$289K$170$212$3219.3%11.9%18.6%
Other BaliVilla2BR206$229K$106$158$1907.0%11.1%13.6%
Other BaliVilla3BR264$359K$191$245$3368.2%10.9%15.5%
Nusa DuaVilla2BR914$298K$126$200$2176.3%10.7%11.7%
Padang PadangVilla2BR114$350K$121$232$3164.9%10.6%14.9%
PererenanCondo/Apt1BR136$104K$68$68$6810.4%10.4%10.4%
NuanuVilla2BR95$272K$126$164$1657.0%9.5%9.6%
MelastiVilla2BR1014$242K$73$138$1704.1%8.9%11.3%
KedunguVilla2BR124$268K$133$149$2197.6%8.7%13.4%
NunggalanVilla1BR175$216K$102$118$1347.2%8.5%9.8%
SeminyakVilla2BR379$324K$127$176$2165.7%8.4%10.6%
PererenanVilla2BR4211$237K$108$126$1356.9%8.2%8.9%
UbudCondo/Apt1BR139$145K$51$74$925.0%7.9%10.1%
Nusa DuaVilla3BR64$378K$66$169$1981.8%6.7%8.1%
UbudVilla3BR621$385K$100$165$2203.4%6.4%8.9%
BerawaCondo/Apt1BR45$170K$45$67$763.4%5.8%6.7%
SeminyakCondo/Apt2BR46$455K$63$166$1941.2%5.2%6.3%
UmalasVilla2BR164$397K$84$139$1832.5%5.0%6.9%
BerawaVilla2BR238$320K$77$110$1103.0%4.9%4.9%
PandawaVilla2BR49$300K$90$93$964.1%4.3%4.4%
UbudVilla2BR2041$320K$67$90$1052.5%3.7%4.6%
PererenanVilla3BR98$614K$128$163$1902.4%3.5%4.2%
SeminyakCondo/Apt1BR95$270K$46$55$691.8%2.4%3.3%

Submarket × Type (broader, more robust)

n filter:Type:
SubmarketTypen_rentn_salePrice medADR P25ADR medADR P75Net P25Net medNet P75
PererenanCondo/Apt2417$117K$67$125$1259.0%17.9%17.9%
KutaVilla65$160K$73$140$1776.9%14.4%18.5%
Other BaliVilla14416$235K$112$183$2957.2%12.6%21.1%
Nusa DuaVilla3431$285K$102$186$2265.1%10.4%12.9%
Padang PadangVilla4314$275K$139$178$2327.7%10.3%13.8%
SanurVilla789$305K$115$176$2245.5%9.1%11.9%
BalanganVilla206$309K$110$178$2305.1%9.0%12.0%
BinginVilla9534$349K$157$200$2326.8%9.0%10.6%
PererenanVilla11334$286K$116$160$2336.0%8.7%13.3%
SulubanVilla285$389K$131$213$4314.7%8.5%18.6%
UbudCondo/Apt3120$147K$50$81$1124.8%8.5%12.3%
Batu BolongVilla1222$412K$178$212$3366.4%7.9%13.3%
KedunguVilla396$288K$103$143$2015.1%7.6%11.2%
UbudVilla14677$345K$94$169$2003.6%7.5%9.1%
MelastiVilla2036$306K$101$144$1784.6%7.1%9.1%
SeminyakVilla13915$405K$132$188$2904.5%7.0%11.5%
NuanuVilla2715$325K$108$135$1704.7%6.2%8.1%
NunggalanVilla2017$299K$102$119$1414.8%5.8%7.2%
UmalasVilla4310$394K$106$154$2093.5%5.7%8.2%
BerawaCondo/Apt615$180K$45$68$763.2%5.5%6.3%
JimbaranVilla765$495K$128$170$2543.3%4.9%7.9%
BerawaVilla5412$360K$92$120$1393.3%4.7%5.6%
PandawaVilla1029$390K$75$90$962.1%2.8%3.1%
SeminyakCondo/Apt1617$270K$50$62$782.0%2.8%3.9%
BinginCondo/Apt76$771K$67$147$1880.3%2.1%3.1%

Island-wide Type × Beds (most robust)

n filter:Type:
TypeBedsn_rentn_salePrice medADR P25ADR medADR P75Net P25Net medNet P75
Condo/AptStudio11100$131K$49$115$1155.4%14.4%14.4%
Villa1BR71783$199K$97$143$1867.4%11.6%15.5%
Villa4-5BR8853$775K$215$497$6503.7%10.2%13.7%
Villa2BR427184$286K$118$174$2246.1%9.6%12.7%
Villa3BR162116$415K$148$213$2685.1%7.9%10.3%
Villa6+BR294$1.54M$565$752$19345.3%7.4%21.2%
Condo/Apt2BR2542$307K$53$137$1371.8%6.7%6.7%
Condo/Apt1BR10896$198K$58$70$923.9%5.0%7.0%
Condo/Apt3BR109$780K$123$172$2101.5%2.7%3.5%

LLong-term rental (LTR) yields — 12-month lease model

LTR Gross = monthly × 12 × occ ÷ price. LTR Net = gross × (1 − mgmt) × (1 − tax) − opex/price. Same color scale as STR.

LTR read. Steady cash-flow vs STR volatility. Operating economics: no daily turnover, no OTA fees, lower mgmt cut (10% vs 30% STR), no furniture amort. Trade-off: ceiling rate is 50-70% of STR-equivalent monthly. Source: FazWaz project-level asking-rents — caveat: asking not realised (typical discount 5-15%).

Source: Bali Villa Hub project-level monthly long-term rent data (n=5841 project-tier records). Sanity-filtered to rent $3–40/m²/mo (Bali realistic range — covers Canggu/Pererenan villa premium through Ubud edge).

LTR assumptions · occ 90% (1mo vacancy buffer) · mgmt fee 10% · opex max($700, 0.7%·capital) · tax 10%

LTR1 · Submarket × Type

n filter:Type:
SubmarketTypenMonthly medMonthly avgPrice medGross %Net %
KedunguVilla134$2,642/mo$4,567/mo$262K10.9%8.1%
Padang PadangVilla169$2,682/mo$6,616/mo$275K10.5%7.8%
MelastiVilla101$2,964/mo$7,063/mo$337K9.5%7.0%
JimbaranVilla141$2,596/mo$6,935/mo$300K9.3%6.9%
BalanganVilla118$3,287/mo$6,224/mo$395K9.0%6.6%
TabananVilla421$1,743/mo$4,200/mo$250K7.5%5.4%
CemagiVilla124$3,040/mo$8,018/mo$459K7.1%5.1%
SanurVilla470$1,988/mo$435,941/mo$305K7.0%5.0%
Nusa DuaVilla534$1,761/mo$367,194/mo$285K6.7%4.7%
BinginVilla174$2,359/mo$4,764/mo$420K6.1%4.2%
PererenanVilla447$1,804/mo$3,666/mo$320K6.1%4.2%
UmalasVilla191$2,150/mo$4,991/mo$394K5.9%4.1%
BerawaVilla368$1,902/mo$530,797/mo$360K5.7%3.9%
UluwatuVilla431$2,049/mo$4,018/mo$400K5.5%3.8%
UbudVilla403$1,777/mo$3,045/mo$350K5.5%3.7%
SesehVilla501$1,920/mo$2,849/mo$487K4.3%2.7%
SeminyakVilla455$1,750/mo$2,984/mo$470K4.0%2.6%

LTR2 · Submarket × Beds — by type

Villas

n filter:
SubmarketBedsnMonthly medPrice medGross %Net %
Balangan1BR54$2,946/mo$227K14.0%10.6%
Balangan3BR10$2,624/mo$377K7.5%5.4%
Balangan4-5BR54$3,768/mo$792K5.1%3.5%
Berawa1BR195$1,653/mo$330K5.4%3.7%
Berawa3BR63$2,534/mo$565K4.8%3.2%
Berawa4-5BR110$2,062/mo$670K3.3%2.0%
Bingin1BR72$2,359/mo$240K10.6%7.9%
Bingin3BR27$2,154/mo$661K3.5%2.2%
Bingin4-5BR75$2,422/mo$720K3.6%2.2%
Cemagi3BR68$2,932/mo$514K6.2%4.3%
Jimbaran1BR28$2,461/mo$345K7.7%5.5%
Jimbaran3BR76$2,764/mo$202K14.7%11.2%
Jimbaran4-5BR37$2,595/mo$1.15M2.4%1.3%
Kedungu3BR31$2,883/mo$243K12.8%9.7%
Kedungu4-5BR48$2,722/mo$725K4.1%2.6%
Melasti1BR52$2,930/mo$177K17.8%13.7%
Melasti3BR41$3,271/mo$410K8.6%6.3%
Melasti4-5BR8$2,248/mo$1.27M1.9%0.8%
Nusa Dua2BR320$1,733/mo$298K6.3%4.4%
Nusa Dua3BR214$1,770/mo$378K5.0%3.4%
Padang Padang1BR14$3,931/mo$182K23.3%18.1%
Padang Padang3BR76$1,933/mo$549K3.8%2.4%
Padang Padang4-5BR79$2,975/mo$1.36M2.4%1.2%
Pererenan2BR127$1,883/mo$240K8.5%6.2%
Pererenan3BR173$1,746/mo$567K3.3%2.0%
Pererenan4-5BR147$1,981/mo$736K2.9%1.7%
Sanur1BR107$1,718/mo$142K13.0%9.8%
Sanur4-5BR363$2,050/mo$399K5.5%3.8%
Seminyak1BR177$1,920/mo$282K7.3%5.2%
Seminyak3BR124$1,735/mo$582K3.2%1.9%
Seseh1BR149$2,060/mo$200K11.1%8.3%
Seseh2BR200$1,702/mo$275K6.7%4.7%
Tabanan4-5BR212$1,992/mo$380K5.7%3.9%
Ubud1BR125$2,023/mo$215K10.2%7.5%
Ubud2BR200$1,670/mo$302K6.0%4.1%
Ubud4-5BR78$1,950/mo$474K4.4%2.9%
Umalas1BR103$2,245/mo$90K26.9%21.0%
Umalas3BR29$1,975/mo$289K7.4%5.3%
Umalas4-5BR59$2,106/mo$794K2.9%1.6%

LTR3 · Type × Beds island-wide

n filter:Type:
TypeBedsnMonthly medPrice medGross %Net %
Villa1BR1684$1,860/mo$200K10.0%7.4%
Villa2BR1059$1,746/mo$281K6.7%4.7%
Villa3BR1121$2,087/mo$419K5.4%3.7%
Villa4-5BR1823$2,181/mo$799K2.9%1.7%
Villa6+BR154$1,683/mo$2.11M0.9%-0.0%

CSTR vs LTR — head-to-head comparison

For each cell, side-by-side net yield: short-term-rental (STR / Booking-Airbnb model) vs long-term-rental (LTR / 12-month lease). Spread shows the winning model and gap in percentage points.

Submarket × Type

SubmarketTypeSTR ADRSTR NetLTR MonthlyLTR NetWinnerSpread
BalanganVilla$79/n1.5%$3,287/mo6.6%LTR+5.1pp
Nusa DuaVilla$159/n6.4%$1,761/mo4.7%STR-1.7pp
BerawaVilla$95/n2.3%$1,902/mo3.9%LTR+1.6pp
JimbaranVilla$144/n5.3%$2,596/mo6.9%LTR+1.6pp
SeminyakVilla$160/n3.4%$1,750/mo2.6%STR-0.8pp
UbudVilla$110/n3.0%$1,777/mo3.7%LTR+0.7pp
PererenanVilla$142/n4.8%$1,804/mo4.2%STR-0.6pp
SanurVilla$133/n4.7%$1,988/mo5.0%LTR+0.3pp
UluwatuVilla$154/n4.0%$2,049/mo3.8%STR-0.2pp

Island Type × Beds

TypeBedsSTR ADRSTR NetLTR MonthlyLTR NetWinnerSpread
Villa4-5BR$423/n6.0%$2,181/mo1.7%STR-4.3pp
Villa6+BR$663/n3.0%$1,683/mo-0.0%STR-3.0pp
Villa2BR$145/n5.8%$1,746/mo4.7%STR-1.1pp
Villa3BR$181/n4.7%$2,087/mo3.7%STR-1.0pp
Villa1BR$139/n8.3%$1,860/mo7.4%STR-0.9pp

Pattern read. Small condos (Studio/1BR) — STR tends to win (Airbnb-class turnover beats long-tenant rates). Mid condos (2BR-3BR) — LTR competitive when expat demand is steady. Premium villa 3BR — STR wins where peak-season holiday demand is dense. Trophy 4-5BR villa — LTR often wins (size doesn't fill on STR, corporate/family relocation pays steady).

Bali context. Tourist-heavy submarkets (Canggu / Pererenan / Uluwatu / Seminyak) favour STR. Inland family-living submarkets (Ubud edges, Tabanan) favour LTR via expat/digital-nomad lease pool. STR vs LTR spread per cell shown above — positive numbers favour STR.

SensSensitivity — yield range across occupancy, operator split, ADR uplift

Headline cell · Ubud · Villa · n_rent=146, n_sale=77 · base ADR $169 · base price $345K · base gross 12.5% · base net 7.5%

OccupancyOperator splitADR ×Gross %Net %
40%0%×1.07.2%5.1%
40%0%×1.39.3%7.1%
40%0%×1.510.7%8.4%
40%0%×1.812.9%10.3%
40%30%×1.07.2%3.2%
40%30%×1.39.3%4.6%
40%30%×1.510.7%5.5%
40%30%×1.812.9%6.8%
40%40%×1.07.2%2.6%
40%40%×1.39.3%3.7%
40%40%×1.510.7%4.5%
40%40%×1.812.9%5.7%
40%50%×1.07.2%1.9%
40%50%×1.39.3%2.9%
40%50%×1.510.7%3.5%
40%50%×1.812.9%4.5%
50%0%×1.08.9%6.7%
50%0%×1.311.6%9.2%
50%0%×1.513.4%10.8%
50%0%×1.816.1%13.2%
50%30%×1.08.9%4.3%
50%30%×1.311.6%6.0%
50%30%×1.513.4%7.1%
50%30%×1.816.1%8.8%
50%40%×1.08.9%3.5%
50%40%×1.311.6%5.0%
50%40%×1.513.4%5.9%
50%40%×1.816.1%7.4%
50%50%×1.08.9%2.7%
50%50%×1.311.6%3.9%
50%50%×1.513.4%4.7%
50%50%×1.816.1%5.9%
55%0%×1.09.8%7.6%
55%0%×1.312.8%10.2%
55%0%×1.514.8%12.0%
55%0%×1.817.7%14.6%
55%30%×1.09.8%4.9%
55%30%×1.312.8%6.8%
55%30%×1.514.8%8.0%
55%30%×1.817.7%9.9%
55%40%×1.09.8%4.0%
55%40%×1.312.8%5.6%
55%40%×1.514.8%6.7%
55%40%×1.817.7%8.3%
55%50%×1.09.8%3.1%
55%50%×1.312.8%4.5%
55%50%×1.514.8%5.3%
55%50%×1.817.7%6.7%
65%0%×1.011.6%9.2%
65%0%×1.315.1%12.3%
65%0%×1.517.4%14.4%
65%0%×1.820.9%17.5%
65%30%×1.011.6%6.0%
65%30%×1.315.1%8.2%
65%30%×1.517.4%9.7%
65%30%×1.820.9%11.9%
65%40%×1.011.6%5.0%
65%40%×1.315.1%6.9%
65%40%×1.517.4%8.1%
65%40%×1.820.9%10.0%
65%50%×1.011.6%3.9%
65%50%×1.315.1%5.5%
65%50%×1.517.4%6.5%
65%50%×1.820.9%8.1%
75%0%×1.013.4%10.8%
75%0%×1.317.4%14.4%
75%0%×1.520.1%16.8%
75%0%×1.824.1%20.4%
75%30%×1.013.4%7.1%
75%30%×1.317.4%9.7%
75%30%×1.520.1%11.4%
75%30%×1.824.1%13.9%
75%40%×1.013.4%5.9%
75%40%×1.317.4%8.1%
75%40%×1.520.1%9.6%
75%40%×1.824.1%11.7%
75%50%×1.013.4%4.7%
75%50%×1.317.4%6.5%
75%50%×1.520.1%7.8%
75%50%×1.824.1%9.6%

VHonest yield map — STR + LTR verdicts

Short-term rental (STR) verdicts

STR Sweet Spot · new-build expected (P75)
17.9% net
Pererenan · Condo/Apt
ADR P75 $125 · median 17.9% net · price $117K · n_rent=24 n_sale=17
STR Best Cell · directional
13.2% net
Bingin · Villa · 1BR
ADR $194 · price $239K · n_rent=73
STR Yield Crusher
7.1% net
Melasti · Villa
Price runs ahead of cash flow · n_rent=20

STR realised vs paper. Year-1 net is typically 50–70% of cell-median net (off-plan units sit empty 3–9 months post-handover for photography / channel onboarding / seasoning).

Long-term rental (LTR) verdicts

LTR Sweet Spot · robust
8.1% net
Kedungu · Villa
$2,642/mo · price $262K · gross 10.9% · n=134
LTR Best Cell
21.0% net
Umalas · 1BR
n=103 (sample-thin)
LTR Yield Crusher
2.6% net
Seminyak · Villa
Premium tier · LTR rates compressed · n=455

LTR realised vs paper. Real net runs 85–95% of asking — Bali LTR market has 1-2 month negotiation discount and ~1mo annual vacancy already in occupancy assumption. Predictable; no peak-season volatility risk.

Marketing-claim audit (which channel can hit "10% guaranteed net"?)

STR ≥ 10% net cells: 2 — Bingin Villa 1BR, Nusa Dua Villa 2BR

LTR ≥ 10% net cells: 0 — none.

Developer brochures often market "8-12% gross" or "10% guaranteed net". In actual data, only small-condo STR or budget-tier studios get there at headline. Branded premium tier delivers steady 3-6% net — call this what it is: lifestyle/capital-pres play, not income.